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    "It's all to play for" - with Chris Anderson at TED

    With Chris Anderson at TED

    I’ve spent the last year being assailed by new ideas and ways of seeing the world at an unprecedented (for me) rate. The coming revolution in personal genomics, the project to create artificial life, the Transhumanists’ journey to ‘transcend our biology’, robots that get mood swings, machines that demonstrate curiosity, a post-scarcity world promised by atomically precise manufacture, holidays in space and our continued entanglement with the world’s biggest machine (the Internet). All of these are to one degree and another coming down the line, as long as the Maldives (and the rest of us) can stay above water, using our technologies and ingenuity to remove carbon-dioxide from our atmosphere (while simultaneously ushering in an energy revolution). I’ve met scientists, philosophers, gone diving with a president and invented a cocktail on the way. Now as I approach the end of my journey I’m looking for people who can help me make sense of it, to somehow pull all these strands together into a coherent view.

    In his book Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology Eric Drexler approaches the future by asking three questions – what is possible? what is achievable? and what is desirable? The question of what is possible seems easy to answer. As we learn to control the very atoms of matter, the mechanisms of biology and the power of computation there is, in fact, very little that we can’t do, in a physical (and indeed virtual sense). Solutions to climate change? Already developed. An end to the energy crisis? No sweat, sign on the line. Holiday in space? Why not, join our frequent flyer progamme. World peace even? Seems only reasonable.

    But when we ask what is achievable, well that’s a different story. Because what we achieve will largely be determined by what we collectively decide is desirable. As George Church told me all those months ago at Harvard Medical School as we discussed personal genomics, “The only thing that puts this kind of medicine far away is really will, right? The question is, how motivated are we?” Do we, as a planet, have the will to take the bounty on offer while mitigating the risks? To get the medicine but not the weapons? To enjoy abundant clean energy while dealing with climate change? To use our technologies to bring us closer together, rather than isolate us?

    It’s to ponder questions like these that I’ve come to meet Chris Anderson, the CEO of the TED Talks, the pre-eminent meeting of, as Chris puts it, “people who can offer a lens through which to see the world in a different way.” Every year Chris and his team gather together the world’s leading thinkers from every discipline and give them 18 minutes to tell the rest of the world how they see things. The results can be found on TED.com. Here you can see Ray Kurzweil summarise his law of accelerating returns, or Kevin Kelly talk about his idea of ‘The One Machine’ that the internet will become, or Hod Lipson demonstrate his robots (along with a host of other mind-shifting presentations that make you see things from a different angle). TED tells a different story of our world than the one we’re used to seeing, and it’s the same story I’ve seen on my travels. There is no shortage of fresh ways to see our future. It turns out we’re not necessarily looking at a damage limitation exercise, but a possible renaissance. But first we have to see it. Only then can we have to make it happen.

    Seeing it is a revelation. We’re so used to being told that everything is getting worse, that the planet is doomed or that the next pandemic to finish you off is just around the corner, or that technology will subjugate us. It’s a world where a book called Is it me or is everything a bit shit? becomes a best seller. And it’s not true. Or at least it doesn’t have to be. Klaus Lackner has a machine, that works now, that takes CO2 out the air. George Church has co-developed a process that can take that CO2, mix is with sunlight for pity’s sake! and create gasoline. Thin film solar technologies will soon take power to where there is no grid, while at the same time mobile devices will continue to take the world’s knowledge (accessed on billions of mobile devices) to every corner of the globe. Solar power continues to show exponential rises in efficiency while nanotechnology is already changing the face of manufacturing and will continue to do so. Medicine may soon see an end to a host of the things that kill us. This story is not being told, which is perhaps the biggest threat to our future. Not that it couldn’t be better, but that because we can’t see it, we don’t know it’s an option.

    “The history of ideas is a really thrilling history,” says Chris, “and ultimately that is what will drive all of our futures. There’s a very boring view of the world which is that ‘things happen’ and you can’t really do much about it.” It’s something he’s experienced himself. “After I left university I became a journalist, then I started a company… and then fifteen years were taken over by all the stress of working. I didn’t have much spare time to think. When the whole ‘dot com’ bust happened the huge gift I got was discovering, holy crap, there’s so much amazing new thinking out there.” I know what he means. Before I decided I actually wanted to answer the question “what next?” I was on the same treadmill, too busy to look up to realise that the story we’re told wasn’t necessarily the only game in town. This book didn’t start off with the word ‘Optimist’ in the title. It was my agent Charlie, who when I told him the sort of thing I was finding out, remarked on how uplifting some of it was and suggested the change.

    We communicate through stories. It is stories that grab us the most and it stories we identify with. Hollywood knows this, political spin doctors know this, newspaper editors know this. “What the story?!” ask editors pointedly when young journalists bring well written pieces that lack a narrative. My own editors were keen to make sure this book had a personal story, and encouraged me to make sure it wasn’t lost in the rush of facts. Chris is very interested in stories, and how the Internet, as it continues its prodigious growth across the globe, can help us, for the first time, tell a story that includes everyone.

    The most memorable thing for Chris about the 2009 TED conference was a dance troupe called The Legion of Extraordinary Dancers. “This troop could not have existed ten years ago. They exist because kids who used to just dance down on the street corner started filming themselves, putting it up on YouTube and suddenly the community that they’re comparing themselves to is a global community. This kid in Tokyo sees a move from Detroit and innovates within hours, puts it online and so on, so the pace of innovation is dramatically increased.” John Chu, who created the troupe from finding the most popular of those YouTube clips says, “Dance has never had a better friend than technology. Online videos and social networking have created a whole global laboratory online for dance.” It’s not just in dance. “This is happening in hundreds of areas of human endeavour,” says Chris. “I’ve started to call it ‘crowd accelerated innovation’ and I find it incredibly exciting.”

    Chris thinks rather than letting go of our humanity, we are re-discovering it. What could be more human than the Legion of Extraordinary Dancers? Kids from diverse backgrounds from across the world, innovating and collaborating to bring a new dimension to an art form as old as society, using technology to help them express themselves and innovate physically with their bodies, to meet, to collaborate, to just dance – and then show the world. Look what we did. Here is something of the exponential growth in wisdom, community, understanding I was looking for to go with Ray Kurzweil’s accelerating technologies.

    “The acceleration of knowledge and ideas made possible by the fact that humanity is connected for the first time is vast,” says Chris. “The re-discovery of the spoken word as a tool for communicating is a big deal. If you think about it we evolved as human-to-human communicators. It was the village camp fire, the elder standing there with his painted face on a starry night, fire crackling, drums beating and telling a story and every eye locked on his and all those mirror-neurons in all those brains syncing up with what he was saying. By the end of this story his whole village would go to war against another village or make peace.”

    “So TED is one of the new storytellers?” I ask

    “It’s one of them. That mode of communication kind of got lost in the print age because it didn’t scale, it was a village-sized technology at best. To me it’s thrilling that it now scales and so one great teacher can inspire many people. One of the things that we see as our role is to try and help nurture that process of re-discovering how to do that, because I think we got to a place where lessons became a person in suit mumbling behind a lectern reading their notes for an hour while a class of people snoozed.” Suddenly, horrifying images of my ‘O’ level economics class come pouring into my brain. I shudder. “It shouldn’t be like that,” says Chris. “So, one of things we see, and this was a big kick for me, is TED speakers competing. An unexpected consequence of putting this stuff online is speakers are looking at what other speakers are doing and are putting in far more preparation time than they ever used to.”

    Just as YouTube became a laboratory for dance, TED is becoming a laboratory for the art of oration. Here you will see a statistician blow your mind and end his talk with some sword swallowing. Here you will find Steven Pinker explain that the world is getting safer, and Robert Wright mix philosophy, sociology and stand-up comedy to give one explanation as to why – a theory he calls ‘the non-zero sum game’. I don’t know about you, but that’s the kind of lesson I can get on board with.

    “We’ve actually got to bring back real creativity and find a way of nurturing that in the education process,” says Chris. “In the age of Google the notion of having to cram all these little brains with facts is bonkers. What’s needed is to build skills like how do you stimulate people to ask the right questions? how do you stimulate people to have a meaningful conversation? to think critically? What are lenses you give people to think about the world? I mean, if I’d have been taught Robert Wright’s non-zero view of history that would have had tremendously more value to me than endless facts about French kings.” It seems that the two things Artificial Intelligence needs the most if it’s ever to stop playing chess and start playing Madlibs, are the two things we need the most too: curiosity and creativity.

    What is our collective story today and who tells it? The storytellers of our day-to-day lives used to be the press and our politicians. Like all good storytellers they used emotion to hook us into one of two, on the face of it, very uninspiring, dull stories. Story one: life happens to you, the future is not going to be very good (especially if you vote for that guy), it was better in the old days, you’ve got to look after yourself, the world is violent and unsafe, your job is at risk, the generation below you are feral and dangerous, things are changing too fast and you can’t trust those immigrants/ scientists/ left-wingers/ right-wingers/ nerds/ geeks/ religious people/ atheists/ football fans/ the rich/ the poor/ what you eat/ your neighbour. You are alone. Make the best of it. Vote for me. Buy my paper. I understand. (Story two is, in summary: ‘Shock! People have sex.’)

    It’s hardly inspiring is it?

    But the story is beginning to be told by other people now, by the Legion of Extraordinary Dancers, by speakers at TED talks, by Mohamed Nasheed who battled dictatorship to the brink of his own death and then got on with battling climate change, by Cynthia Breazeal who wants to build robots that help children learn, by Vicki Buck who quit government to create jobs to take on global warming, by George Church who wants you to stay healthy longer, by Eric Drexler who wants to usher in a post-scarcity world using technology on the nanoscale, by the good people at Konarka who take electricity out the sky and give to the developing world. A story being told by the curious and the smart, that inspires the curious and the smart in all of us, by people who wonder and ask the kind of questions that haven’t been asked before. Crucially, none of them wait for permission to ask those questions, or then to find the answers. It is being told through writers who find themselves traveling across America and readers of blogs who might say in the pub, “did you know the technology exists to make petrol out of the air?” It is being told by the cult of the possible, who seek to achieve, to bring us what we desire. Peace. Understanding. Space to love each other. People who encourage us to evolve.

    Eric Drexler has written, “As the Web becomes more comprehensive and searchable, it helps us see what’s missing in the world. The emergence of more effective ways to detect the absence of a piece of knowledge is a subtle and slowly emerging contribution of the Web, yet important to the growth of human knowledge.”

    I think we’re beginning to see, collectively, what’s missing, and crucially we’re now able to do something about it. Technology doesn’t give you permission like your teachers did. It gives you agency – to ask, to learn, to connect, to do. It says, “go on then, show me what you’ve got”.

    “I don’t know that the future’s going to be better,” says Chris. “But I think there’s a very good chance that it will be and I think that’s something that everyone can do to further increase that chance. There are several quite profound and inspiring ways of thinking about the world that suggest there are these trends that have the potential to drive a better future and I think there is such a thing as moral progress, driven not by any difference in the DNA kids are born with, but just driven by what they see, and seeing more of humanity just naturally flicks on certain switches that make people more empathetic. Of course, the future might well be truly horrible. I think it’s all to play for and I think everyone of sound mind and conscience should be in the game, trying to shape it in the right way. It’s a very false and shallow view of history to say that it’s just one thing after another. Ultimately though our history is the history of ideas. It’s a really thrilling history and ultimately that is what will drive all of our futures.”

    Ideas, creativity, curiosity – and dancing. Now there’s a mix.

    More of my talk with Chris, will of course, make it into the book…

  • September15th

    I spend today with the good people of Konarka, a ‘thin film’ ‘organic’ solar panel manufacturer with a nascent manufacturing facility in Bedford, (a 45 minute drive south of Cambridge). Konarka is one of a gaggle of solar power start-ups that are vying to move us to renewable solar energy and make a tidy profit in the process. I’m hoping to visit a several of these firms for chapter 3, which is nominally entitled “Energy Crisis? What Energy Crisis?”

    After all, just 0.3% of the energy hitting the Earth’s surface in the form of sunlight would meet all our needs. We’re awash with it. So, what we have is actually an energy conversion crisis. Or more specifically a cost of energy conversion crisis. That’s why fossil fuels have done so well, because they pack a lot of energy punch in ratio to the amount of money it takes to release that energy in a usable form. This was obvious as far back as 1861 when French inventor Augustin Mouchout developed a steam engine powered entirely by the sun. Of the burgeoning Industrial Revolution he prophetically remarked, “Eventually industry will no longer find in Europe the resources to satisfy its prodigious expansion. Coal will undoubtedly be used up. What will industry do then?” But despite patronage from Emperor Napoleon III Mouchout’s invention never caught on. High costs of manufacture, coupled with the low price of coal made other power conversion technologies more economically viable – a problem that has dogged the solar energy industry ever since. But that’s about to change.

    There are two key technology battles that the solar energy industry is fighting that are worth highlighting –

    • reducing the cost of manufacture and ownership of solar power hardware (e.g. solar panels)
    • making it more efficient (i.e. increasing the amount of sunlight converted into electricity).

    More specifically, it’s the relationship between the two – how much energy do you get per buck? If that figure compares favourably to fossil fuels then you’ll begin to see large-scale take-up of solar power not for ‘green’ reasons but for commercial ones. And as fossil fuels get more expensive (as they become more scarce) and solar gets cheaper (as the energy:cost ratio improves) that inflection point draws ever closer. In fact, it’s arguable that it just happened. (I won’t get into a discussion of costs per watt here, because untangling the relationship between such measures and real world deployment of the technology is no small task - hence my use of the word ‘arguable’ above – but it will be covered in the book).

    Tracy Wemett, Konarka’s PR woman and, it turns out, a passionate advocate of education (she mentors disadvantaged teenagers when she’s not helping her clients) drives me to the firm’s manufacturing facility. Tracy, it has to be said, drives like she’s immortal (i.e. has no fear of death). Still, death if it comes will probably be swift, we’re in her open top sports car on a beautiful sunny day. I need to look up sometimes and enjoy these moments of the trip. After all, there’s an elevated chance this could be one of my last moments on the planet.

    We make it, still alive, to Konarka’s facility which is actually an old printing plant that belonged to Polaroid. Because Konarka print solar cells. It’s a hell of a printer I can tell you – Larry Weldon, Konarka head of manufacturing takes me on a tour – but the result is a flexible solar panel no thicker than a few sheets of paper. There’s no bulky, rigid silicon-based panels here. Konarka’s technology centres around ‘organic nano-particles’ (essentially long chains of polymers) that have energy generating characteristics. I’ll make this chemistry understandable in the book (it’s pretty cool) – and one of the guys who helped Konarka make use of it is Nobel Prize winning Alan Heeger. Heeger won the 2,000 Nobel Prize for Chemistry (along with Alan MacDiarmid and Hideki Shirakawa) “for their discovery and development of conductive polymers.” That’s enough geek speak for now. Anyway, you can wrap this stuff around laptop bags, garden furniture or roll it on top of your garage. It’s mobile solar energy generation, something that I’m becoming increasingly interested in, and its implications for our future. But more on that below.

    I love the way engineers talk. They’re so matter-of-fact that sometimes you can miss that what they are saying is often quite extraordinary. Larry is no exception. He’s at the centre of a revolution, developing ways to turn the science of solar energy into a cheap manufactured solution. He’s one of the guys addressing that central problem of the cost:energy efficiency ratio (and by extension, helping to end our dependence of fossil fuels). Later I update my twitter status to read: “I like engineers – they talk revolution like it was replacing a fuse”.

    Touring the factory is fun. It’s nice to see the future being made rather than just talked about. At the end of the production line is the quality control facility – including a test bed with powerful lamps that are ‘calibrated to 1 Sun’. This is where that all important efficiency rating is determined. Rather annoyingly the solar industry tends to quote a misleading efficiency metric (based on a standard called AM 1.5). For instance, let’s say a manufacturer claims that their cells have an efficiency rating of 10%. This infers that they convert 10% of the light energy hitting them into usable electric current, an inference the PR machine is happy for us to make. However, what ‘10% efficiency’ actually means is, ‘this panel will convert 10% of the light energy hitting it into usable electric current if it’s midday, if the panel is at the equator, and there’s no clouds in the sky’. The measure doesn’t take into account how, for instance, some technologies can generate electricity in low light, or from ambient angles. So a technology that generates lower levels of energy but can work in more ‘difficult’ light conditions (say earlier in the day, or later at dusk, or in cloudier climates etc) might actually generate more energy over a day than one with a higher efficiency rating. Bad solar power industry! Please start using some metrics that reveal the whole story. The test bed looks beautiful, the blue plastic sheeting surrounding it giving off a kind of ethereal sci-fi luminescence.

    Konarka test bed

    I have to confess I’m also amused by a machine I see on the tour which proudly displays its function as ‘BUTT SPLICER B’. Larry, Tracy and I joke that when this factory used to manufacture asses this machine was where they put in the crack. It’s actual function is far more prosaic – simply butting two films up to each other for joining together, but I’m adamant that whoever named this knew what they were doing. And to be honest who can blame them? Given the option of ‘dual film joiner’ or ‘butt splicer’ I know where I’d go.

    Konarka's butt splicer

    I thank Larry for taking the time to show me around and head out of the factory with some trepidation, because I know the only way I’m getting back to Boston (and my talk with Konarka’s CEO Rick Hess) is with Tracy at the wheel. The photo she takes of me outside the plant could be last of me breathing.

    Rick Hess is what I would call ‘very CEO’. He’s confident, relaxed with the air of man who can smell bullshit from 3 miles away. He’s also got the easy manner of a man who probably doesn’t have to worry too much about his pension. What I like about him is he’s honest and generous about his competitors – about where they have advantages or niches that he can’t exploit.

    Soon our conversation begins to echo the themes that emerged during my talk with Bill Mitchell the day before – about technological advances that fragment existing models of behaviour or business. “Phones went wireless, Internet went wireless and the only thing that’s left you have to find a wire for is power,” says Rick. It’s an obvious statement but incredibly powerful – and it has interesting implications for the utility model of getting your power. At the beginning of August, Colorado’s biggest utility, Xcel, tried to put a surcharge on homes and businesses using rooftop solar power. Hmmm…

    This  article from Newsweek has some interesting observations:

    In 2008, rooftop solar added more than 10 times the amount of power to the country’s grid than utilities did. Maryland-based Sun Edison, the country’s biggest installer of solar panels in the retail market, added more electricity to the grid last year, 25 megawatts, than did the entire utility industry.

    …and…

    “The utilities are more interested in protecting their stranglehold on the power grid and preserving their century-old business model than they are producing clean electricity,” says Jim Harvey, who heads up the Joshua Tree, Calif.-based Alliance for Responsible Energy Policy, an advocacy group that’s staunchly opposed to utility-generated solar power.

    The ‘off grid’ solar revolution has potentially massive benefits for the developing world. “If you look at the developing world in terms of communications,” says Rick, “they skipped wires and went straight to wireless and I think for power they’re going to do the same thing”.

    I try to imagine what an alien visitor would say looking at the way we distribute power. “You do what? You wait for millions of years until old biomass has become coal or oil? Then you burn it, to turn a turbine? Then you send the electricity you genereate down a huge system of wires, and if someone wants some of it they have to find the end of one of those wires and plug in? And you charge them for this shambles?” At this point I imagine said visitor pointing upwards with whatever it points with and saying, “Never think about taking it straight out the sky then?” Mankind shuffles awkwardly on its feet. “Well, you know, we are starting to do that. And look! – we have a butt splicer too.”